That's a modest total, and the Titans' defense has struggled this year. Even Pittsburgh's defense is "only" eighth in DVOA. Although the Titans are typically sluggish, the Steelers boast a speedy attack. I enjoy betting on OVER 36.5 in this game despite the spread being true.
Will Levis' home NFL debut was amazing. First away game in tough Pittsburgh. I want Steelers -2.5 to win and cover after losing. Steelers' QB is unknown, but Titans' pass defense is beatable. Levis should stay strong following his great start against Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin in a low-scoring game.
Atlanta, one of the league's lesser pass defenses, limited him just 29% pass success. I don't feel much different about the Titans because I don't want to exaggerate a game. They were ordinary with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and are with Levis.
Not yet. When they dealt All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles, the Titans hinted to their inevitable season conclusion. This team is selling to retool. Levis is part of that, and these games will give him significant experience in his first season, but this AFC club is not playoff-caliber.
Intrigues me. The Steelers have poor pass defense, Hopkins had 128 yards last week, and the Titans are road underdogs in a throw-heavy game. Hopkins' six targets versus Atlanta reduced his effectiveness. More than veterans, rookie QBs lock on the team's top pass-catcher in route progressions.
Well-guessed. Levis reportedly caught 77.6 Falcons yards. Titans' Turron Davenport of ESPN says NFL Fantasy Fallout may benefit pass catchers. "Expect that trend to continue." "Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly has also shown a tendency to call plays with Hopkins as the first option and is willing to move him around the formation to create favorable matchups." Today Hopkins may gain 51.5 yards.
Diontae Johnson is Pittsburgh's top short-pass target again. Against top wide receivers, the Titans rank 32nd in DVOA and 31st on short throws. I'll take Diontae Johnson OVER 4.5 catches since I like his reception prop over his yardage prop.
The Steelers are favored in this game, so they're less likely to face a huge lead and constant running. This should reduce linebacker Holcomb's tackle possibilities. My model predicts 6.8 tackles + assists.